SEAI publishes Mid-Year Review on Energy and Emission Data for 2025

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) has published its latest set of energy and related emission figures up to the first half of 2025. This provisional data indicates that the residential sector is likely to stay within the first carbon budget allocation, but the key energy sectors of transport and electricity will likely exceed their allocations this year.

Achieving our climate targets will mean healthier, more comfortable homes, more competitive businesses and more affordable, secure energy for all. Faster technology change and ensuring we are efficient and strategic in how we use energy will be crucial. This provisional data helps us see if we’re on track.

Commenting on the data, Margie McCarthy, SEAI’s Director of Research and Policy Insights, said:

“We’ve made progress over the last 5 years, including the blending of biofuels for our road vehicles, scaling up of solar farms and wind generation, home energy upgrades, and EV roll-out, but these figures highlight that we need to do a lot more, and fast, to reach our targets.”

This latest data shows that, barring an extended cold snap at the end of 2025, emissions from the residential sector are likely to remain within their sectoral ceiling in the first carbon budget. Residential demand for both natural gas and heating kerosene was lower in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year, driven by a combination of warmer weather, higher energy prices and household retrofits.

Future progress on residential emissions in the second carbon budget (2026-2030) will be further boosted by the Government’s recent allocation of a further €568 million towards energy efficiency measures in Budget 2026.

Demand for road diesel in the first half of 2025 was 3.2% lower compared to the same period last year. The record levels of biofuel blending at garage forecourts and a record number of electric vehicles on our roads have positively impacted transport sector emissions. SEAI’s data shows that transport emissions in the first half of 2025 were 2.0% lower than the same period last year.

However, despite this welcome reduction, SEAI’s analysis indicates that Ireland exceeded its transport emission allocation for the first carbon budget earlier this year. Since September 2025, Ireland’s transport sector has effectively been emitting against its future allocations in the second carbon budget, which is meant to cover the 2026-2030 period.

Despite a 2.8% increase in electricity demand, SEAI’s data shows that Ireland’s electricity sector emissions in the first half of 2025 were largely unchanged from the same period last year. Increased demand was largely met through greater use of imported electricity via international interconnectors.

SEAI’s best estimate is that Ireland’s electricity emission allocation for the first carbon budget could be exceeded sometime in November 2025. Renewable generation in the first half of 2025 has not increased significantly, compared to the same period last year.

Commenting on the data, Margie McCarthy, SEAI’s Director of Research and Policy Insights, said:

“As we near the end of our first national carbon budget, this data provides timely updates on Ireland’s energy and related emissions.

“Taking stock of what’s been achieved and where we have lagged at the end of this first carbon budget should be a decisive moment for both our economy and climate. If we achieve net demand reductions and deploy clean energy faster, then Ireland can build an energy system that’s secure, affordable, and healthier for everyone, and gives us a chance to meet our climate obligations.”

“While Ireland’s energy transition presents short-term challenges, its long-term benefits will be enormous. From warmer homes and more energy-efficient businesses to a more resilient and future-proof economy. We simply cannot afford not to act. Either as individuals or as a society”, Margie McCarthy concluded.

SEAI’s mid-year Review for the first half of 2025 can be viewed here.