The Unemployment Rate Falls Despite the Uncertainties in Ukraine

The main unemployment rate was 4.7% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 4.8% in April and down from a level of 6.9% twelve months ago. The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed fell by 2,400 in May and fell by 46,700in the past 12 months.

Jack Kennedy, an economist at global job site Indeed, comments on the latest CSO data: “The rate of unemployment fell in May to 4.7%, with fears about the rising cost of living and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine failing to dent the positive employment trend.

The recently published Q1 Labour Force Survey from the CSO tells a story of sustained employment growth, with 275,200 more people employed in Ireland compared to a year ago.

Employment trends are still positive, but Indeed’s data shows that employers hiring demands have eased in recent weeks as downside risks to the economy have grown. Notably, the inflow of new job postings has slowed. But employers are still actively hiring, with the level of Irish job postings on Indeed up 57% on 27 May 2022, compared to 1 February 2020.

While recruitment pressure in some job categories has eased, the inflationary backdrop and skills shortage in some areas means employers in categories like tech, pharma, and engineering will still be facing challenges in finding suitable candidates.

The high rate of price inflation has prompted fears of a ‘wage-price spiral’, but Indeed data to date shows wage growth continuing to lag well behind inflation. Analysis of advertised wages in job postings in April points to wage growth of 3.6% year on year, although a handful of occupations are seeing faster wage growth: food service (6.3%) and sales (5.8%).”