Post pandemic world making passports lose their shine

As parts of the globe cautiously begin to open up, the focus is on what travel freedom and global mobility will look like in a post-pandemic world and how passports will be affected. Last week the EU released a list of countries whose residents would be allowed entry into the bloc from 1 July.

Included on the welcome list are countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea that traditionally score highly on the Henley Passport Index — the original ranking of all the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa. However, in a move perceived as a stinging rebuke for its poor handling of the virus, post-pandemic, the US was notably excluded from the list, as were Brazil and Russia.

Although not reflected in the latest ranking, which does not take temporary travel bans into account, it is eye-opening to consider what travel freedom currently looks like for the holders of once-prestigious passports.

Post pandemic world making passports lose their shine

For instance, before Covid-19 the US passport usually ranked within the top 10 on the Henley Passport Index in 6^th or 7^th place, with its citizens able to access 185 destinations around the world without requiring a visa in advance.

However, under the current EU ban, the picture looks starkly different. US nationals now have roughly the same level of travel freedom as citizens of Uruguay (included on the EU’s list of welcome countries), which ranks 28^th on the index, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 153.

In another striking inversion, the US’s dramatic decline in passport power means that Americans find themselves with a similar level of travel freedom usually available to citizens of Mexico (25^th on the index, with a score of 159), current travel bans notwithstanding, albeit temporarily.

This is one of many extraordinary shifts in passport power caused by the temporary pandemic-related bans. Brazilian passport holders, for example, find their passport strength greatly diminished.

The country usually ranks highly on the index ¾ most recently placed 19^th, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 170 ¾ but the loss of access to the EU means Brazilians currently have roughly the same extent of travel freedom as citizens of Paraguay (36^th on the index, with a score of 142).

Far-reaching effects

Without taking the various travel bans and restrictions into account, Japan continues to hold the number one spot on the Henley Passport Index with a score of 191. Singapore remains in 2^nd place with a score of 190, while Germany and South Korea are in joint-3^rd place, each with a score of 189.

Both Japan and South Korea have been included on the EU’s list of ‘safe’ countries, while Singapore has been excluded.

This means Singaporean passport holders currently have far less travel freedom than their closest competitors on the index, which is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of investment migration firm Henley & Partners and the inventor of the passport index concept, says the EU’s recent decision will have far-reaching effects. “As we have already seen, the pandemic’s impact on travel freedom has been more drastic and long-lasting than initially anticipated. This latest decision by the EU indicates that there is more upheaval to come”.

Immigration controls in US and UK tighten amid calls for co-operation

While the US looks set to be significantly affected by the EU’s latest decision, it has issued stringent immigration controls of its own over the past few months.

Greg Lindsay, Director of Applied Research at NewCities, says that the Trump administration’s temporary suspension of all work visas will have far-reaching effects. “The executive order, signed on the 22 June, will bar as many as 525,000 foreign workers from entering the country for the rest of the year.”

In the UK, the pandemic’s effect on mobility has also been severe. Robert McNeil, Deputy Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, says that the almost complete cessation of international arrivals into the country has generated serious challenges for industries.

McNeil says that despite public attitudes around immigration softening, the Brexit process has not slowed down.

“In May, the government pushed through the new Immigration Bill, paving the way for a new ‘points-based’ immigration system,” he said.

“The new restrictions would prevent many people from becoming key workers in the UK in the future”.

Changing priorities in a transformed world

As premium passports lose their shine in a post-COVID world, experts suggest that the crisis is likely to make international mobility more restricted and unpredictable in the longer term.

Prof. Dr. Yossi Harpaz the assistant professor of Sociology at Tel Aviv University said: “even as countries open their borders, it is expected that numerous governments will use epidemiological concerns as a justification for imposing new immigration restrictions”.

Noting the recent decision by the EU with respect to the US and other countries, Harpaz says, “The passports of both developing and developed nations stand to decrease in value, at least temporarily. In such uncertain times, global demand for dual citizenship and investor visas is expected to increase.”

Discussing the impact of the pandemic on global migration trends, Charles Phillips, researcher, and consultant for Oxford Business Group, suggests that environmental health concerns could become a priority for those seeking alternative residence or citizenship.

“We can expect places that are governed well and better equipped to deal with pandemics. Just as travel choices will likely be more strongly influenced by health considerations, we may see those acquiring alternative residence or citizenship placing a greater emphasis on a country’s health policies when deciding where to reside.”

Dr. Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says the growing demand for additional residence and citizenship options comes as no surprise.

“We have seen extraordinary upheaval over the past few months, with many certainties falling away. For investors and their families, having a second citizenship or an alternative residence is an even more precious asset than ever before.  As we enter the worst recession since the Great Depression, a small country like Montenegro, for instance, is better equipped to weather the storm”.

Dr Seffen pointed out how the recently launched Montenegro Citizenship-by-Investment Program provides permanent access to stay in the country and the provision of economic aid. “It  provides the country with  a much-needed liquidity injection of much needed debt-free foreign capital that can be used to buffer the impact of the pandemic and create significant societal value.”

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