My father was a big commodity speculator, and as a 10-year-old in the 70’s commodity boom I saw him pile up fortunes in the markets. He let me spectate as he built his fortune and I could see there was magic to this.
I asked him what the secret was to making money in the markets.
He said: “Son, all you need to know is whether the market is going up or down. If it is going up, you buy and if it’s going to go down you sell. Everything else is just froth.”
As a wise child I immediately knew this couldn’t be how it was done. There was obviously some complicated voodoo to predicting the market and making huge amounts of money. I wondered what the secret really was.
A few decades later I realised that this is indeed the trick. If you do not know if it is going up or down why are you playing at all?
The second piece of the puzzle is given up by the gold miners’ maxim: “If you think it’s gold it isn’t. If you know it’s gold, it is.”
To predict the future of Bitcoin you have to ‘know’ where it is going.
Some know it’s going to zero, I know it’s going up.
So that is my position. I know it’s going up and it’s going up a long way.
Now that is not an invitation to sell your house and live in a tent until Bitcoin is $1m a coin. It is merely an invitation to add Bitcoin to a broadly diversified portfolio of risk.
Knowing that Bitcoin is going up is simply an indicator of the probabilities being in your favour. There is no mandating the future for us avoiding meteor strikes and other such trumping events.
Those apart, the cryptocurrency genie is out of the bottle and Bitcoin, like an old rock star, has got there first and is fated to hog the limelight for good.
I love my own cryptocurrency, Plus1 coin (but then I would, wouldn’t I?) and I hold the most money in Bitcoin, Monero and – strangely enough – Dogecoin.
Bitcoin is the king, so it’s a must, in the same way as Lloyds Bank is the must ‘hold’ for private investors.
Monero is a well-run cryptocurrency, living the dream of the cyber-anarchists that birthed the internet and then birthed the blockchain and cryptocurrencies. It’s not just drug-dealing, tax-dodging terrorists that want privacy in this day and age of bugs up your USB ports.
Dogecoin is the very soul of crypto: irreverent, anarchic, started as a joke, orphaned by its creator like a true Frankenstein, yet matured and driven by the blockchain and the internet to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
All these coins are classic distributed, proof-of-work cryptocurrencies born fully formed directly or indirectly from the head of Satoshi Nakamoto the ‘inventor’ of Bitcoin. There are plenty of other flavours of cryptocurrencies: the Ethereum tokens, the non-minable coins, the centralised blockchains… I look at these and I think many will be good investments. When I look at the distributed, decentralised, consensus-based coins – offshoots of Bitcoin’s philosophical and political structure – I know they will do well.
Yes, that could be crushed by the boot of regulation, read politics, but the dream and the track record of Bitcoin is that it cannot be controlled by anyone however smart, large or resourceful.
If that dream is real, then Bitcoin and the spawn of Bitcoin will actually restructure the economic system as we know it.
Economic history is a story of the abstraction of money; the most recent, bar cryptocurrency, were the exotic derivatives that nearly blew up the world economy.
Simplistically, first there was gold then there was paper and finally there is cryptocurrency. With the total worth of Bitcoin about the same as oil company BP, there is a massive upside for Bitcoin when the next boom for crypto comes. That may be sooner than all but the most optimistic think.
Monero – In this surveillance world we live in, privacy is becoming a rare and valuable thing. Monero has strong privacy. It also has a team committed enough to fork the currency once they were sure the ASIC producers had got a machine that cracked ASIC resistance and were mining it to death by centralisation. Strong development, strong privacy, strong brand – that’s a good combination.
Plus One Coin (PLUS1) – This is my baby and it’s great to see its first use cases come alive. PLUS1 has risen 300% since around April. A coin with a use case is a rare thing and the PLUS1 social validation use case is gaining traction in the US and UK. People often think Bitcoin came out of nowhere overnight, but the truth is it takes years for a cryptocurrency to be an overnight success. Plus One Coin is on its way and it has a very small market cap and therefore a huge upside potential.
Dogecoin – Dogecoin is the epitome of a decentralised coin. It has a lot of solid attributes and also has a big brand. On top of that, it has a small market cap for its brand and will really move up big time when the next leg of the crypto-boom strikes.