By @SimonCocking

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev @GTCost. Speaking at the Predict Conference  @predictconf September 15 – 17th

How did you first become interested in data / predictive analytics?

As an academic researcher and practitioner in financial markets, much of what I do revolves around data and data analytics. My primary objective in research is focused less on predictive component than on deeper analytics, but many models we work with generate both predictive results and actionable algorithms.

How do you think data will change business?

My sector is already extremely data-intensive. The evolutionary path in finance relating to data analytics is today leading us into very exciting areas of research and applications. Speed of markets transactions is growing, with some markets already approaching the speeds beyond which stability of data and markets, ability of even the most modern models to handle data analytics and functionality of modern algorithms can become highly unpredictable. In addition, data flows we observe and act upon in financial markets is increasingly integrating qualitative, behavioural and other non-standard forms of data and data sources. All of this exponentially increases both data and insight complexity, which makes financial markets such an exciting place to be for those of us who appreciate data-driven insights.

What is your best data (data modelling/predictive analysis) tip?

It is a macro-level tip: never overstate your confidence: even statistically strong insights can be rendered valueless by simple changes in preferences or human behaviour, incentives or regime environments.  Do not confuse statistical fit with relevance: that which is statistically significant can be unimportant. Always check if the data-driven insight makes intuitive sense.

What was the most surprising thing you have found/uncovered from data analysis?

That beyond rationality, there is always a higher order of uncertainty which often only masks fragments of rationality within?.. [Insert a  smiley face]…

What advice would you give to someone just starting out on their data journey?

Be humble. See best data tip above.

What skills do you think a good data scientist analyst should have?

Curiosity about human nature.

Which trends in this area will make the biggest change in people’s lives in the next 2 – 5 years?

First, technology/modelling: Hybrid Cloud Computing and Natural Language Computing, plus a promise of software-designed security; second, analytics: Autonomous analytics, Advice automation and the promise of behavioural sensing in real time leading eventually to behaviourally adaptable software. I don’t know if it will take 5 years or 10 for us to get there, but we are on the way.

You can see Constantin Gurdgiev and many more speak at the Predict Conference in Ireland at the RDS Dublin, 15 – 17th September, 2015

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