Why it is hard to be optimistic about the U.S response to COVID-19 Randall Bolten

Randall Bolten is the author of “Painting with Numbers: Presenting Financials and Other Numbers So People Will Understand You”. In addition to his writing, he also teaches, carries out numerous CFO roles, and speaks about presenting numerical information effectively.

I spoke with Randall about his background and his current involvement with a start-up which aims to monitor the way doctors subscribe to opioids and other controlled substances.

Beginning with his past, Randall discussed how he grew up in Washington DC, before going on to achieve academic success in two of the countries most acclaimed universities.

“I am the son of a CIA officer and a history professor.  After receiving a BA from Princeton and an MBA from Stanford, I have spent virtually my entire career as a finance executive for software companies, including nearly thirty years as a chief financial officer, with most of that time in Silicon Valley”.

Randall spoke of how his previous work experience has been essential to his current projects, due to his ability to showcase data in a conceivable way.

Painting with Numbers

“The inspiration for Painting with Numbers came from my years as a finance executive, and the observation that small changes in the way numbers were presented could have a huge impact on how well those numbers were understood”.

Randall discussed how the pandemic has been an opportunity for unique and effective number presentation, an area which is often overcomplicated for the casual viewer.

“We are awash with data, and all too often that data is presented in ways that are monotonous, hard to understand, and uninformative. It takes skill and creativity to organize and present that data in ways that are meaningful and provide new insights”.

The conversation moving towards COVID-19, provoked Randall to speak about his most recent work, working with a small software start-up that could revolutionize how safely and efficiently doctors prescribe opioids.

He also mentioned how his most recent writings on COVID-19, have helped him develop new skills and tricks in data presentation that he hopes to include in the latest version of “Painting with Numbers”.

“The opioid crisis continues to rage in the U.S., and the COVID-19 pandemic has not only drawn attention away from the opioid crisis but has actually made the crisis worse in several ways. And my writings about the pandemic have not only – I hope – provided useful information to my readers, but have helped me to develop new skills and a fresh perspective on data visualization, which will be immensely valuable for the second edition of Painting with Numbers that I am planning”.

COVID Testing and Data Representation

Randall then deviated upon his reasoning for getting involved in COVID testing and data representation, due to there being a lack of data represented in the American media.

“Right from the beginning of the pandemic, epidemiologists were stressing the importance of testing as a way of controlling its spread. At the same time, especially in the U.S., a debate was raging about whether our testing capabilities were up to the task. Although there is plenty of raw data available about how much testing has been done, I found almost no thoughtful analysis of that data in the media. It seemed like a great opportunity for a skilled amateur to add some value to the conversation”.

He spoke of the major insights he has taken from the data, firstly mentioning how they focused on numbers per capita of the population.

“With respect to testing, my first key insight was to focus not on total tests – as our president was doing – but on numbers per capita (or per 1MM population). By that standard, among the wealthy nations in the world, the U.S.’s level of testing puts us roughly in the middle of the pack”.

His second insight involved attributing tests into two categories, that of “necessary” and “strategic”.

“Necessary tests are tests that must be performed because there are cases – patients with symptoms must be tested at least once to confirm the virus and at least twice more to confirm recovery, plus the patient’s housemates and other obvious candidates for testing”.

He then explained the difference between strategic tests, and how they are meant to prevent the disease from spreading.

“Strategic tests are the tests intended to prevent the spread of the disease – they include tests resulting from contact tracing, regular tests of employees in sensitive industries like health care and food services, and tests administered by employers who naturally want their employees to return to their workplaces”.

He moved on to speak of the significant amount of testing in the US, due to the infection rate in the U.S. is two to five times higher than any of the nations of Western Europe.

“there is a huge demand for “necessary” testing, and a correspondingly smaller portion of our total testing is “strategic”. As a result, the U.S. fares even worse on the metric of “strategic testing.” The U.S.’s infection rate attests to that”.

In terms of the U.S ridding itself of the pandemic, Randall is a realist, believing his country must make a bigger push towards dealing with COVID-19 properly.

“Sadly, I’m not an optimist on that question. (Click here to see a LinkedIn article based around the issue.) For a variety of reasons – I would argue the main ones are reopening the state economies too soon, a lack of leadership on the importance of good safety practices, and inadequate and inefficient testing – our new cases are continuing to rise. Perhaps the latest huge surge will prompt a reassessment of our response”.

Randall’s Main Inspirations

As our conversation concluded, we spoke of Randall’s main inspirations, in which he discussed how a lot of his key motivators have come from the world of finance.

“From my finance career, I have many mentors. For the graphs I have been producing, I am inspired by the work of Edward Tufte, who many think of as the patron saint of data visualization. (He is the author of The Visual Display of Quantitative Information and several other books on the subject.)

He then fondly talked about the influence of his high school teachers, who embedded into students the importance of precise self- expression.

For my own book, Painting with Numbers, which is the only book that treats presenting numbers – whether in tables or in graphs – as a communication skill and not a math skill, I’m inspired by the terrific English and history teachers I had in high school. They stressed the importance of expressing yourself clearly, succinctly, and in your own personal style. I have learned that is true whether you are expressing yourself with words or with numbers”.

If you would like to learn more about Randall and his work:

You can access his personal website at  www.painting-with-numbers.com, and you can email him at [email protected].

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