The race to dominate self-driving cars set to kick into high gear in 2025

Guest post by Matthieu Courtecuisse, founder and CEO of the global consultancy firm Sia

Some companies have already turned their eyes towards the next phase of the AI revolution, the next frontier that will follow generative AI: robots of all kinds – humanoids, drones, satellites.

CES 2025 featured one of these pillars: autonomous cars. But beyond the show and the prototypes, a concrete advancement deserves our full attention. Throughout 2024, San Francisco’s autonomous taxis became one of the city’s attractions. San Francisco is one of three US urban centres to have deployed the service by Waymo, Google’s subsidiary, with its white fleet of driverless vehicles, sporting an unusual appearance, bristling with cameras on the roof.

Only 18 months after its launch to the general public, Waymo climbed to the top ranks of ride-hailing services in November, capturing a 20% market share – exactly matching that of Lyft, Uber’s main American competitor, which lost 10 points in the process, dropping to 55%. This performance is remarkable for two reasons. First, the success of a traditional ride-hailing or taxi service relies on network effects, which in this case are measured by wait times for a ride. For now, Waymo’s wait times remain noticeably longer than those of its local competitors. Second, there is no price difference, even though the service is significantly more technologically advanced.

The speed of adoption is justified by factors related to service quality, such as vehicle cleanliness, driving, safety and even the silence of the driver. Once the network effect is addressed, Waymo will be on track to become dominant, with no similar competitors, creating a ripple effect on municipalities in other countries eager to be among the next to adopt the service. At the Dealbook summit organised by The New York Times in early December, Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai, announced the deployment of Waymo in about ten American cities, including Austin, Atlanta, and Miami. All these factors explain Waymo’s latest valuation, approximately $45 billion, which served as the benchmark for its $5.6 billion funding round last October, led by its French CFO.

Pichai also emphasised that Waymo’s only competitor is Tesla, with its Autopilot platform, which is currently available only in its public version with a driver. To avoid falling behind, Elon Musk’s company might launch its Robotaxi model, the Cybercab, earlier than planned. This futuristic, two-seater, driverless car without a steering wheel is expected to hit the market in 2027 at a price of around $30,000. A

mazon, on the other hand, is expected to remain focused on developing fleets of autonomous trucks, whether for long-distance transport or last-mile delivery. In China, Baidu – the country’s equivalent of Google – launched its “Apollo Go” service last summer in Wuhan. With 500 vehicles, it is currently the largest experiment of its kind in the world, offering rides at a 50% discount compared to human-driven taxis.

These upheavals are disrupting traditional ride-hailing and car-sharing services, which lack the financial and technological resources of the “Magnificent Seven” (Google, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon).

The first strategic option is to form partnerships, as seen with Uber and Waymo collaborating on the deployment of autonomous taxis in Austin and Atlanta. The second option involves consolidation. Current valuations place Uber at $120 billion, Didi at $20 billion, Bolt at $8 billion, Lyft at $5 billion, and Careem slightly below that. The third option is to broaden the range of services. Rumors are circulating about a potential merger between Uber and Expedia, which itself is likely to be affected by advancements in AI-driven services.

For automakers, the rise of autonomous taxis is pushing them to accelerate their efforts in service-oriented and partnership-driven approaches. This shift has become even more evident since GM abandoned its autonomous car project, Cruise. Naturally, partnerships such as those between Toyota, Hyundai, and Waymo are setting a trend, with Tesla remaining the only company capable of fully integrating both the software and the vehicle components. The major issue for automakers in terms of volume will be transitioning from autonomous taxis to autonomous car rentals, which will represent a true market shift.

This year is certain to be a landmark year in urban mobility, officially kicking off the battle of autonomous taxis in the United States and beyond.

See more stories here.