Rethink Energy launch solar industry forecast to 2030

A fresh report from Rethink Energy predicts sustained growth in the global solar industry, with the pace of annual installations doubling from 2023 to 2030, resulting in a 6 TW global solar fleet – four times the size of today. China’s solar generation in that year will equal the output it currently draws from its coal fired power plants.

Full release below.

This will be enabled by photovoltaic technology upgrades, lowing prices for silicon with incremental improvements, and then by the first adoption of perovskites, which is imminent. By 2030, perovskites, both tandem and single-junction, will be the majority of new installations in certain national markets.

In 2030, the standard silicon solar module will have 25% efficiency, but thin-film perovskites will also be a significant fraction of new installations in the BIPV segment, and tandem perovskites will have begun a rapid takeover of the whole solar industry, being a categorically superior product.

This forecast updates Rethink Energy’s prior report on the solar supply chain pricing and the nascent perovskite solar industry, with module prices set to fall, not recover, from their already ultra-low levels, even once consolidation and bankruptcies thin out the field in China.

This forecast provides the latest quarterly statistics from 20 leading national solar markets and forecasts their industry scale to 2030, with discussion of crucial limiting factors across the leading regions of China, the US, Europe, India, and elsewhere.

In most cases transmission and distribution network expansion is the most significant limiting principle, but workforce constraints, land availability, and protectionist reshoring strategies will also come into play in different markets.

Solar modules will continue to be cheaper and more powerful than ever before, with the ‘forever overcapacity’ brought into play by China’s expansion driving not just further gradual cost declines, but also forcing through the pursuit of ever further marginal efficiency improvements, meaning both the cost-effectiveness of production processes and module design, and the ultimate power per square meter of solar modules.

Even as solar heads into a period in which it will be challenged like never before by grid congestion and price congestion, the fundamentals remain strong enough to ensure that its future remains bright. Certain markets in the West have already reached their maximum installation pace, but more will come to life in their place.

China and India in particular will fuel their industrialization with solar that boasts ever-cheaper total project costs, while Europe’s energy crisis has not truly gone away and will continue to fuel a rapid build out. Central Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America contain many markets on the cusp of mass solar adoption, and even South East Asia may be pressured into pulling the trigger on a new boom like that in Vietnam in 2020.

This is the latest forecast in the Rethink Energy Archive, which now includes:

Electrolyzer Market Forecast to 2040; critical insights for stakeholders navigating the complexities of the hydrogen sector
VPPs will become the core of the future energy grid; Virtual Power Plant Forecast to 2040

Global Electricity Grid: Strategies for Overcoming an Imminent Bottleneck
Lithium lull makes nickel top priority for US battery OEMs despite difficult sourcing environment

Renewables end 2023 with costs falling, eyeing greener pastures

How solar price declines in polysilicon, high-purity quartz, silver paste and other elements will shake out through 2040

Green H2 transportation to revolutionize trade; The deeper implications of an emerging global industry

How the global battery industry will adapt to the exploding requirements of the automotive and energy storage sectors

Perovskite kicks into unrelenting growth in 2026 for 20 years

Geothermal goes global, just in time to save oil service $billions

Global Hydrogen Market Forecast to 2050

Solar Industry growing rapidly with DER skew post-pandemic

Green Steel Premium: Myth or Reality?

DOWNLOAD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY here

See more breaking stories here.