Why we will never run out of resources, Super Trends, Lars Tvede

Interesting interview with Super Trends author, Lars Tvede, including his interesting views on our global resources.

What is your background briefly?

I have a Masters degree in Engineering, specialized in food processing, and I have a bachelors in International Business. I am also certified derivatives dealer.

Does it seem like a logical background to what you do now?

Apart from my specialization in food processing in one of my educations, the combination of tech, business and finance background is actually very suitable for what I do now.

What inspired you to write the book?

As a tech- and macro investor, I absolutely need to know this stuff, and there is no better way to get an overview over a subject than to write a book about it.

Why the future is positive for innovation, resources and humanity, Lars Tvede

What has the response been so far?

I wrote it first in Danish, where it received excellent reviews – the main business newspaper rated it the second best business book of 2019. It also spend considerable time as a top-5 none fiction bestseller. So that worked, but apart from that, I have received a lot of invitations to speak, invest etc., based on what people read in the book. That includes the English language version.

How do new organisations evolve to accommodate faster technical change?

There are two chapters in the book about this. It is mainly by decentralizing and turning towards what Frederic laLoux has called an “evolutionary” organisation model.

Anything you would update for a 2nd edition?

We have a company called Supertrends which is mapping a detailed best-estimate timeline of the future. If I should update the book, say, two years from now, I would include elements of this timeline.

Which tech trends that will have the biggest disruptive potential over the coming decade?

I would say AI and synthetic biology. Those two are absolutely massive, and they are rolling out now. If and when nuclear fusion power actually works, then that would be right up there with these two. Of second tier importance, I would mention precision fermented- and cultured meat. And perhaps quantum computing.

Why we will never run out of resources?

Because our innovation is exponential, whereas out population growth is decelerating rapidly. Also, our wealth growth has now almost completely decoupled from our use of resources.

Will tech create unemployment? – what are the future growth employment markets?

Tech has always destroyed jobs, but in addition, it has always created new ones. That´s why it never creates structured unemployment expect in very special localized cases. I don’t think that will change.

Tell us more about Zimans law about doubling of scientific activity every 15 years

Ziman discovered, that doubling of scientific activity every 15 years has happened for several hundred years now. The implications are bigger than we intuitively think. Think about it: If we index scientific activity at “1” to begin with, then its “2” after 15 years. Then “4” after 30 years. Then “8” after 45 years. Then “16” after 60 years. Then “32” after 75 years. Then “64” after 90 years. And so, what Zimans Law really means is that scientific activity has pretty much has doubled every 100 years, which again means that it has grown by a factor 100,000 every 200 years.

Can this continue? I think it can, at least for another century or two. The reason is that scientific activity increasingly will be done by AI, which can now run on computers with 400,000 cores and soon with even more. Furthermore, quantum computers will enter the game with capacities that are millions of times faster than the biggest supercomputers today.

What does the future of energy look like, can we reach 100%+ from renewable energy soon / in time?

In my opinion, wind and solar take up too much space to supply all our energy, but nuclear is getting much smarter and can easily fill any gap. Especially if we launch nuclear based on thorium, or if we get nuclear fusion to work, I would argue that they are potentially cleaner and certainly safer.

How can people find out more about you personally & your work?

Check out www.larstvede.com , www.suoertrends.com and www.supertrendsinstitute.com/

50 years from now, is the world a better or worse place than today?

In all likelihood, the world will be much better then.

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