Why the number of NYC corona virus deaths will be higher than predicted, Jeff Reynolds

Interesting interview with Jeff Reynolds and why he feels the corona virus deaths in NYC will be higher than was predicted.

What is your own background briefly?

I’m the President of a 1200 employee marketing analytics business.  Between 1994-1999 I spent 5 years working on a PhD in Human Development and Social Policy at Northwestern in Chicago.

Does it seem like a logical background to what you do now?

Yes.  Modern marketing is data driven and understanding consumer behavior uses the same theory and skills that academic psychologists and behavioral economists use.  My specialty and the specialty of the firm us using sophisticated analytics and deep human understanding to help our clients grow their business.

How was the last 12 months? What were your big wins?

It’s been an exciting time.  Last year, we really lived into our vision as a business, growing our existing business to a record level, and acquiring 4 companies that help us offer a full suite of services for our clients.  We’ve become the go-to firm for Silicon Valley.

What would you have done differently?

Hard to say.  From a business standpoint, not much.  From a personal standpoint, I would have figured out a way to enjoy life more spending time with my family and playing golf.

1 min pitch for what you are doing now?

While experts across the world are working to help understand and solve the Coronavirus Pandemic, we shouldn’t lose sight that the world’s biggest problems are often solved by outsiders who bring domain expertise into the problem to find creative ways to build solutions.  As a highly trained quantitative social scientist, I don’t know a thing about epidemiology.  But by applying models of thinking from other disciplines and some creative thinking, I’ve developed a way to predict the course of COVID-19 in the US that, for the most critical questions, are outperforming the expert models and that have implications for saving lives and minimizing suffering in NYC.

Why did you get involved with predicting the number of NYC corona virus deaths?

Three weeks ago it started as an exercise to get my head around this crisis.  Then it moved into a strategic assessment so that I could understand how COVID-19 would impact our business.  Once I was down the “rabbit hole” I became invested.  I thought I had some valuable ideas to contribute.  And, as a problem solver, I just wanted to figure it out.

Why do you think it will be higher than currently estimated?

Because my model tells me it will (and I’m happy to show you).  But I believe my model because I’m using a unique, non-standard approach to answer the two most important questions right now:  When will the curve flatten and how bad was it before it flattened?  I’m convinced the “experts” are using incredibly complex, yet standard models.  COVID-19 has characteristics that are causing them to use some wrong assumptions in their model.  Those assumptions caused them to under-estimate NY and over-estimate most everywhere else.

Can this be reduced if action is taken?

Because the course of COVID-19 takes about 20 days, what is happening now is the result of what was going on 20 days ago.  So today, the actions we can take impact the future three weeks from now.  And those are important still.  Social distancing is hugely important and will get us out of this.  But in the short term, I’m trying to help policy makers in every state understand that NY is going to be worse than expected and most states are going to be better than expected.  If they know that, those states can send resources to help NY.  They will need ventilators, PPE, and personnel.

How can people find out more about you personally & your work?

I may turn out to be a “one-hit-wonder” relating to public writing.  I’ve summarized my POV in the Medium article below.  My firm is LRWGroup.com.

https://medium.com/@jreynolds_10940/new-yorks-worst-case-scenario-478fe57c4c7e

Who and where do you get inspiration from?

I’ve always sought to make a difference.  I probably got that from my mom and dad.  But using data analytics to make a difference was inspired by a host of brilliant mentors.  Dr. John Gottman is one.  Dr. Greg Duncan and Dr. Dan McAdams inspired and supported me.  And then, of course, Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics General Manager who used data analytics to revolutionize sports.

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More about Irish Tech News and Business Showcase here

FYI the ROI for you is => Irish Tech News now gets over 1.5 million monthly views, and up to 900k monthly unique visitors, from over 160 countries. We have over 860,000 relevant followers on Twitter on our various accounts & were recently described as Ireland’s leading online tech news site and Ireland’s answer to TechCrunch, so we can offer you a good audience!

Since introducing desktop notifications a short time ago, which notify readers directly in their browser of new articles being published, over 30,000 people have now signed up to receive them ensuring they are instantly kept up to date on all our latest content. Desktop notifications offer a unique method of serving content directly to verified readers and bypass the issue of content getting lost in people’s crowded news feeds.

Drop us a line if you want to be featured, guest post, suggest a possible interview, or just let us know what you would like to see more of in our future articles. We’re always open to new and interesting suggestions for informative and different articles. Contact us, by email, twitter or whatever social media works for you and hopefully we can share your story too and reach our global audience.

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If you would like to have your company featured in the Irish Tech News Business Showcase, get in contact with us at [email protected] or on Twitter: @SimonCocking